On April 2, Israel conducted a missile attack on an Iranian consulate in Damascus. For Iran! this presented a challenging situation, because these attacks require a response to maintain credibility. However, the purpose of this attack was premised on dragging Iran into a war. If Iran had retaliated, it would have provided justification for further attacks; and if it hadn’t responded, it would have appeared weak.
Now, the crucial point to understand is that when a country responds to such situations with a retaliatory attack, it usually takes at least 48 hours. For example: Pakistan targeted India with a retaliatory attack within 24 hours in February 2019. While on the other hand, Iran responded to the recent Israeli attack within 48 hours. In such situations, when a retaliatory strike does not occur until the third day, it implies that a major player has intervened and is attempting to mediate.
Generally, the outcome of such mediation attempts is such that the affected country is advised to retaliate in a manner targeting specific military objectives of the aggressor country but avoiding significant escalation. Not only are conventional military targets hit! but also important assets and individuals are spared, and the timing of the retaliatory strike is coordinated mutually.
This year being an election year in America, Biden’s nose is already in proximity to the grindstone with the situation in Ukraine. In this context. Israel’s attempt in trying to drag the U.S. into a war with Iran can be perilous for Biden. Therefore, our speculation! is that America, while pulling strings behind the scenes! orchestrated today’s Iranian attack on Israel. Several reasons fuel our thinking.
Firstly, Iran shouldn’t have taken more than 48 hours to retaliate. It merely fired one missile in response. There was no need for elaborate planning. Such military plans are already part of every country’s national security policy.
Secondly, it was Biden who suddenly revealed three days ago that Iran was about to launch a retaliatory attack soon. And the Israeli government had already declared schools and colleges closed for two days starting from yesterday. The announcement of closure one day before and one day after the night of the attack clearly indicates that the date and time were fixed.
The third reason why Iran used Shahed drones for the attack, which have a speed slightly lower than that of a Toyota Corolla, making! them easily detectable by the Iron Dome system. Iran also claims to possess hypersonic missiles, which neither Israel nor America has yet. So, why didn’t Iran use a single hypersonic missile instead of 200 drones, which directly hit the target?
The fourth reason is why Iran immediately! said after the attack, “Let the matter be considered closed.” What was the need for Iran to say this? It should have stood its ground to negotiate. The fifth and most important reason is that Iran holds the status of a red line for both Russia and China. So, why didn’t tensions appear in Beijing and Moscow? The Foreign Ministries should have been running helter-skelter, warning that Iran’s retaliatory strikes could lead to a third world war. The calmness in Beijing and Moscow is! the biggest evidence of match-fixing. But all our analysis could also be wrong. And there’s only one way for it to be wrong: if Israel attacks Iran.
Let’s to see if Israel does it or not?
